SSE: 601390 - China Railway Group Limited

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Key rate
Excess Key Rate — Desired excess of the key rate
EPS = 1.35
CAGR EPS = 7.32%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 5.73 + (5.73 * 7.32% / 100) = 6.15

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair price
Terminal Value — cost in the post-forecast period
Company Value — cost during the forecast period
Count shares - Number of shares
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 57.8
Ebitda Yield = 0.0175
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Debt servicing costs
Debt - Debt
Weight Debt - Capitalization weight relative to debt
Weight Cost Debt - Debt weight relative to capitalization
Tax - Tax
Interest Expense = 5.19
Debt = 416.37
Market Cap = 173.66
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 173.66 / (173.66 + 416.37) = 0.2943
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2943 = 0.7057
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — discount rate
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risk-free rate of return
β (beta) — determines the measure of risk of a stock (asset) in relation to the market and shows the sensitivity of changes in the stock's profitability in relation to changes in market profitability. Beta can be calculated not only for an individual stock, but also for an investment portfolio.
Risk Premium — risk premium - premium for the risk of investing in shares
Country Premium - country risk
k(f) = 2.89
β = -2.54
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.89 + -2.54 * 5.94 + 0 = -0.1218
WACC = (5.19 / 416.37) * (100% - 0.2943) * (1 - 0.21) + -0.1218 + 0.2943 = 0.9469
Terminal Value = Discount (57.8 * (1 + 0.0175) / (0.9469 - 0.0175)) = 6949.21
Company Value = ∑ (57.8 / (1 + 0.9469) ^ 5) = 271.38
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (6949.21 + 271.38) / 24752200000 = 291.71

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair price
Terminal Value — cost in the post-forecast period
Company Value — cost during the forecast period
Count shares - Number of shares
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 28.88
FCF Yield = -2.08
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Debt servicing costs
Debt - Debt
Weight Debt - Capitalization weight relative to debt
Weight Cost Debt - Debt weight relative to capitalization
Tax - Tax
Interest Expense = 5.19
Debt = 416.37
Market Cap = 173.66
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 173.66 / (173.66 + 416.37) = 0.2943
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2943 = 0.7057
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — discount rate
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risk-free rate of return
β (beta) — determines the measure of risk of a stock (asset) in relation to the market and shows the sensitivity of changes in the stock's profitability in relation to changes in market profitability. Beta can be calculated not only for an individual stock, but also for an investment portfolio.
Risk Premium — risk premium - premium for the risk of investing in shares
Country Premium - country risk
k(f) = 2.89
β = -2.54
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.89 + -2.54 * 5.94 + 0 = -0.1218
WACC = (5.19 / 416.37) * (100% - 0.2943) * (1 - 0.21) + -0.1218 + 0.2943 = 0.9469
Terminal Value = Discount (28.88 * (1 + -2.08) / (0.9469 - -2.08)) = -14.21
Company Value = ∑ (28.88 / (1 + 0.9469) ^ 5) = 24.57
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-14.21 + 24.57) / 24752200000 = 0.4185