MOEX: CHMF - Северсталь

Fair price = 1 774.43 ₽
Current price = 1 148.6 ₽ (difference = +54.49%)

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
Key Rate = Key rate
Fair price = 488.44 ₽
Current price = 1 148.6 ₽ (difference = -57.47%)

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - Fair price
DPS — Current dividend
g — expected growth rate
Cost Of Equity — discount rate
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risk-free rate of return
β (beta) — determines the measure of risk of a stock (asset) in relation to the market and shows the sensitivity of changes in the stock's profitability in relation to changes in market profitability. Beta can be calculated not only for an individual stock, but also for an investment portfolio.
Risk Premium — risk premium - premium for the risk of investing in shares
Country Premium - country risk
Fair price = 5 473.41 ₽
Current price = 1 148.6 ₽ (difference = +376.53%)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair price
Terminal Value — cost in the post-forecast period
Company Value — cost during the forecast period
Count shares - Number of shares
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Future Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - weighted average cost of capital (taking into account country risks, inflation, taxes, etc.)
Fair price = 1 930.94 ₽
Current price = 1 148.6 ₽ (difference = +68.11%)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair price
Terminal Value — cost in the post-forecast period
Company Value — cost during the forecast period
Count shares - Number of shares
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield) ^ 5
Company Value = ∑ (FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - weighted average cost of capital (taking into account country risks, inflation, taxes, etc.)
Fair price = 795.69 ₽
Current price = 1 148.6 ₽ (difference = -30.73%)